Predictions
Positions, dated and revisited
Predictions published with the reasoning behind them, and reviewed later against what actually happened — including the ones that turn out to be wrong.
Why this page exists
It is easy to comment on artificial intelligence and never be held to any of it. Each prediction here carries the date it was made, the horizon it applies to and the reasoning behind it — and gets a status later, whether or not that status is flattering.
No prediction has been published yet. Each one needs the prediction itself, the date made, a time horizon, the reasoning, related topics, and a status that is updated on review.
Statuses
How each prediction is reviewed
Open
Made, and not yet due.
On track
Evidence so far points this way.
Confirmed
It happened, within the horizon.
Partially right
The direction held; the specifics did not.
Wrong
It did not happen. Left up, with a note on why.
Too early
The horizon was wrong, the thesis may not be.
Retired
The question stopped being meaningful.
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